It’s funny what a little success can do to people.

This year, as anyone vaguely aware of Michigan Basketball knows, the Men’s basketball team made it’s first NCAA Tournament in ten years, even winning it’s first-round game against the favored Clemson Tigers, doing more with two walk-ons and two lightly regarded Freshmen than Steve Fischer could do with Taylor, Traylor, Baston, Ward, and Bullock.

Beilein accomplished something nearly unprecedented in Michigan basketball since 1989: they succeeded without scandal or cheating. Moreover, Beilein succeeded where Amaker failed by coaxing improvement from his returning players and from the entire team over the course of the season. Manny Harris had slight gains in shooting percentages, but doubled his assists while cutting turnovers and snagged nearly two addition rebounds a game while DeShawn sims increased his Field Goal percentage by ten percent and significantly cut his turnovers – such progression had been unheard of in the past decade of Michigan basketball.

Yet, when thrown against the back-drop of a Michigan State title-game run, some Michigan fans have grown restless. As seen by this mailbag question at MGoBlog, this Scout thread,this hand-wringing about the impact MSU’s success has on Michigan’s future,  and numerous other angst-ridden parts of the Michigan interwebs, people have extremely short memories. Forget the past ten years, the unexpectedly successful season, and a promising in-coming recruiting class. Michigan’s future is in JEAPORDY. Beilein’s recruiting too many under-talented white kids! Three-point teams can’t win the championship! MSU’s succees has us all DOOOOOMED! The Beilein band-wagon has turned from “Beilein is the savior!” to “Beilein can’t win a championship!”. People – get off my interwebs.

In his response to the above-linked MGoBlog mailbag question, Brian presses a lot of the right buttons, however, there is a large quibble to be had with Brian’s further point – essentially, that Michigan has ceded the hope of Final Fours and NCAA Titles for the thinner gruel of consistentcy – frequent tourney bids with an occasional sojourn into the Sweet Sixteen:

“The question appears to be “can Beilein recruit like Izzo/Matta/whoever,” and the answer is very probably not. That’s what Michigan signed up for when they hired Beilein: low downside, low upside. Beilein’s not the sort of coach to upset the instate balance of power or hire some random AAU guy for the privilege of getting your one-and-done kid. He’s not that guy. He is a guy who will bring guaranteed respectability, likeable teams, and a host of tourney bids with some fun runs to the Sweet 16 or whatever. Michigan basically abdicated on being a powerhouse when they hired Beilein.”

There are a few problems here, so let’s take them point-by-point:

-The question appears to be “can Beilein recruit like Izzo/Matta/whoever,” and the answer is very probably not.

Frankly, if this is the case, someone better inform Beilein. Brian waves off the 2010 targets Trey Zeigler, Casey Prather, and Will Regan, but, like, why? Prather, Ray McCallum, and Zeigler are respectively the #30, #56, and #75 recruits in the nation. Brian is appropriately skeptical of Michigan’s chances with Prather, but, as shown by Beilein’s near-steal of Nate Lubick from Duke, things can happen. Regardless, given Beilein’s snag of Darius Morris from across the country, the landing of highly-praised Matt Vogrich, and Michigan’s current lead for Zeigler – arguably the state’s best player – the evidence that Beilein can’t recruit on this level just doesn’t exist, unless you care to assume that Beilein’s recruiting won’t improve from Morgantown to Ann Arbor – a theory he’s already disproven.

-He is a guy who will bring guaranteed respectability, likeable teams, and a host of tourney bids with some fun runs to the Sweet 16 or whatever. Michigan basically abdicated on being a powerhouse when they hired Beilein.”

Look – a horrible Wisconsin team made the final four in the unwatchable Dick Bennett days. George Mason made it. Eighth-seeded Villanona and NC State won championships. Flukes? Definitely.

BUT, here’s the thing: single-elimination tournaments are a crap-shoot. Is Michigan State neccesarily the second-best team in the nation by virtue of their appearence in the final game? Of course not – just as Michigan’s defeat of Duke didn’t mean they were “better”. If Beilein coached West Virginia to two Sweet Sixteens, it stands to reason that he can do the same with the seemingly improved talent-base he has at Michigan. The distinction between a Sweet-Sixteen run and a final four run is frequently luck.

Even if we move Brian’s argument out of the Tournament and into the realm of general regular-season success, the point seems to fizzle. As mentioned ad nauseum – Beilien started a walk-on point guard and two freshmen who would have been coming of Valparaiso’s bench barring Beilein’s desperation to bring in a few players upon his arrival in Ann Arbor. This Michigan team possibly had four players that had the talent to justify significant minutes in a major conference – Harris, Sims, Grady, and Lucas-Perry, and they still garnered a #10 seed and earned a second-round game in which they gave Oklahoma a tougher game than #3 seed Syracuse. With  Michigan’s best recruiting class in years on the way and the probability of at least one additional top-100 player arriving the following year, is a #2 or #3 tournament seed that far out of the question?

John Beilein has, thus far, shown the ability to recruit elite players, as shown by landing Darius Morris and our current lead for Trey Zeigler.

John Beilein has, thus far, shown the ability to find elite players from lower tiered recruits, as shown by Kevin Pittsnogle, Joe Alexander, and Mike Gansey.

John Belein has, thus far, shown the ability to squeeze the most from players of limited talent, as shown by Stu Douglass and Zack Novak.

John Beilein has, thus far, shown the ability to develop players, as shown by Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims.

John Beilein, as evidenced by his NCAA tournament success, has demonstrated himself to be one of the finest in-game coaches in NCAA basketball.

Comrades, now is a time for optimism.We have a demonstrably good coach who coaxed an NCAA tournament from a team with a fraction the talent of Tommy Amaker’s failed teams. We are, clearly, in the process of upgrading the talent on the team to a level no John Beilein-coached team has previously had. This isn’t a guarantee of NCAA Championships and Final Fours. This is a reminder that to act as if the program, after this season, is in peril, or to dismiss the possibility of greater levels of accomplishments is folly. Enjoy the team, comrades. Enjoy them in the moment, for what they are at that time – don’t worry about a future that is out of your hands, and don’t dismiss the potential for greatness. Be a fan – Michigan hoops are looking up. Book it.